Bronstad
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 92
Merit: 10


View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
April 14, 2014, 04:08:25 PM

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 1%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 15%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 100% (already happened Apr 13th [yes I'm being pedantic])
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 =100% (already happened as recent as Apr 1st)
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 100% (Feb 9th)
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 87%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 =86%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 85%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 81.432%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 60%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 55%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 5%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 1%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

Want to bet 1 btc that price will not visit above 5000? You have a 5% edge according to your estimations.

Nah, there's a 45% chance it doesn't happen until Jan 1st, 2015. Not worth the risk  Tongue