aminorex
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June 27, 2014, 08:02:11 PM

Seriously, at this point, what event could lead to a "bitcoin is dead" consensus again, say over the course of 1 year?
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:

Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN