octaft
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March 26, 2014, 07:37:59 AM


I am more than happy to make this bet with you: 5 BTC in escrow.

If Mtgox gives a 80%-100% refund in coins, the price of Bitcoin will not decrease on increased volume more than $100 less than the day of the refund within 2 weeks of the refund.

I see these types of bets all the time, and it's dumb for the other side, every time. When you win, your prize is worth less than if you lose. If he were to take this, he would be in a sense laying you odds.

Why don't you instead make him an offer for $XXXX USD worth of bitcoin when the bet is settled, and have the person holding them divvy the bitcoin up accordingly (so you get a refund if you don't have to give all the bitcoins on escrow away to cover the $XXXX). That's much more attractive for the bear side of the bet.