All posts made by solarflare in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 3916369 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.35h):
Timothy B. Lee: What informs your thinking about the future of Bitcoin?
Mark Williams: I used to be the senior vice president of a commodity trading firm in Boston. I'm very familiar with commodity prices with high volatility.
That's where I stopped reading.
2.
Post 3946120 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.37h):
I'm thinking of going full fiat right now. To buy back at a lower price (hopefully)
3.
Post 4139655 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.46h):
Bears have plenty of time to buy back in. I anticipate more bad news from China. Specifically, regarding foolish attempts to bypass the no-deposit law with things like vouchers (lookin' at u btcchina).
Exactly.
We shouldn't forget that Chinese exchanges are in a difficult situation. They could shutdown anytime.
4.
Post 4139983 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.46h):
A complete shutdown is bullish because that would stop panic selling. The price would become dependent on other exchanges.
A continued policy of no deposits while allowing withdrawals will inevitably result in more panic selling. However, if the gov also restrict withdrawals, then traders might be forced to buy bitcoin just to cash out elsewhere, similar to what happen with Gox last summer (and is arguably still happening).
Right, I tend to see this potential shutdown as a continuation of the current trend of gradually increasing restrictions.
They will most likely block deposits and put a deadline on withdrawals before stopping all trading activity.
At least that's how I would handle it as an exchange owner (it's a good way to buy a ton of cheap coins).
5.
Post 4474113 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.54h):
Methinks that 1800 dollars is too much money to gamble. (My betting limit is a pizza and a beer, and I have made only three or four such bets in my life.) I would rather spend that money on tools or other grown-up toys.
Then just invest what you can lose, even if it's 10 bucks!
Here is a reminder:
Man buys $27 of bitcoin, forgets about them, finds they're now worth $886k3. I can't sleep at night when all my money is in BTC, but I can when it's in fiat.
Stop loss orders work for me.
6.
Post 4475341 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.55h):
Yes,
IF I knew at the time that bitcoins were going to appreciate that way, I would certainly have bought them. Ditto for gold or Apple stock. But with my luck I would probably have invested in Enron or the Madoff fund instead...
But right now Bitcoin does not look like such a good investment, does it? It may be a gold mine for day traders, but to prosper one must be smarter and quicker than all the other smart guys, which I am not.
Like most people who can afford a computer and an internet connection, I spend more than $10 a day on stuff I don't need.
So I really didn't think you would consider $10 an investment (or could not afford to lose them).
My bad.
7.
Post 4475394 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.55h):
You do not need consumption or destruction of bitcoins. The demand is reservation demand, and only reservation demand. This is the characteristic of pure money, money that is not at the same time some useful commodity.
That is one of the things I still don't understand. Suppose that Bitcoin is used to make payments equivalent to a total of M dollars per day, worldwide. How does one derive from that number a "base value" (market price apart from speculation) for 1 BTC in dollars?
Supply and demand and what people think it's worth.
Also,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_discovery
8.
Post 4475544 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.55h):
3. I can't sleep at night when all my money is in BTC, but I can when it's in fiat.
Stop loss orders work for me.
Doesn't work for me. I'd rather let the market run rather then not making an informed decision while I'm asleep. I think there in lies the problem. I just care too much when my money is in BTC and have to check charts, price, FUD, every minute. I'm not 100% fiat obviously. Just enough that I'm not forced to check 24/7.
Oh yeah, you still have to check the market regularly in order to move your stops (so they are kind-of-informed stop-losses).
9.
Post 5402918 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.21h):
Even with this situation price fell "only" to 500$ and with big volumes. Except a main problem on bitcoin protocol itseft, I can't imagine worst than oldest/biggest marketplace falling - mtgox, used to be the leader and still was for medias).
From looking at recent events and charts I would presume that real floor is 500, would you ?
I'd say so (for what it's worth).
It is quite impressive indeed that the price only fell so high.
10.
Post 5440697 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.22h):
I wonder, who else watch this thread constantly even though they only hold and buy, never sell ?
11.
Post 5631938 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.25h):
My maximum is zero percent. It's my money. If I am forced to be charitable, it's not really charity, is it? How much freedom would you be willing to give up for freedom? Your question makes no sense.
I fear you are mistaking money for freedom.
your freedom is always measured by the freedom of the people living around you.
Sorry, but no.
My freedom is measured by how free I feel and nothing else.
It's purely subjective.
12.
Post 5632550 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.25h):
My freedom is measured by how free I feel and nothing else.
It's purely subjective.
So, if you thought that you were allowed to do anything, but you had no desire to leave an 8x8 concrete cell which you were sitting in, it would be the same as *actually* being allowed to do anything?
So it's true that freedom is just a state of mind...
Yes. I'm free until I discover that I'm not and only then might I realize I wasn't actually free.
And yes, freedom is just a state of mind, a feeling... Have you never felt free ?
Of course that's only one definition of freedom among many, all of them potentially valid depending on the context.
When it comes to government interference with peoples lives, it's not that I don't care, but I believe we all have the ability to migrate and should do so more often.
I move from a country to another like I move from a company to another. I just wish the control freaks in charge didn't make it so difficult (passports, visas, vaccines!, bank accounts, etc).
13.
Post 5662557 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.26h):
Website already down.
Will never trade there.
14.
Post 5747816 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.27h):
Could we make the polls a little bit more serious ?
That is, leave "yes", "no" and "idk" but remove the moronic all caps options ?
15.
Post 5767139 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.27h):
1d and 4h charts:
16.
Post 5767368 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.27h):
1d and 4h charts:
(see above)
and there you have the fractal nature of price... it's almost unbelievable, isn't it?
Yeah... I opened the chart with 4h candles and saw it immediately, it was so obvious! "Hey, I know this pattern!"
17.
Post 5767509 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.27h):
What will happen to btc once ltc explodes?
Define explodes. LTC at $25? $40? $100? $1000? and when? day, week, month, 6 months, 6 years?
Personally, I doubt LTC will grow much beyond BTC... maybe we will get to .1BTC... but otherwise somewhat parallel to BTC... and probably losing value over time to other alts...
If lots of idiots like me bought at the top of the last ATH, it probably won't go much higher than that.
I'm saying that because I will be selling as soon as I can make a profit and believe I won't be the only one to do so.
That's of course my (very) short term position. I'll be ready to buy back in the next dip.
18.
Post 5768241 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.27h):
If lots of idiots like me bought at the top of the last ATH, it probably won't go much higher than that.
I'm saying that because I will be selling as soon as I can make a profit and believe I won't be the only one to do so.
That's of course my (very) short term position. I'll be ready to buy back in the next dip.
I think ltc/btc =
0.35 0.035 is a reasonable short-term target, however "explosions" make me nervous...
Actually, I won't sell. I'll just put a trailing stop if we go past the ATH, that way I won't have to worry about explosions or anything.
19.
Post 5770864 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.27h):
The problem with Huobi giving a fixed date, is that all the Huobi traders probably moved BTCs to other exchanges in order to buy LTCs ahead of the release.
I wouldn't except the price to skyrocket much more than that. Then of course Huobi must have it's share of slow brained people who might start buying only tomorrow.
20.
Post 5772187 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.27h):
Yes, I can relate to some degree.
I have a fairly accurate Excel spreadsheet that allows me to keep track of various particulars regarding my BTC investment actions.
And, I have employed a couple of methods to attempt to bring down my average BTC buy-in price, which I am sure are similar to what you have attempted.. maybe with differing budget, timing (or luck).
One tactic has been to attempt to buy more BTC at a lower price (if we can figure that out), and then the other tactic is to trade... sell and then buy again lower (if we can figure that out). I got burned a few times trying the trade method.. so I feel a bit more comfortable with the keep buying method.
Same feeling here, especially since you can end up with a ROI higher than the ATH if you are a bad trader! (and I'm one).
My ROI is already much higher than I am comfortable with... And so I learned to buy and hold.
I applied this strategy to my friends and family BTCs account (which I kindly manage) and they all have sub $600 averages (suckers!).
21.
Post 5773863 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.27h):
after a goxing people ain;'t holding coins at exchanges unless they plan to be trading
the goxxing will continue
I think 2014 will be the rise of the next major exchanges and perhaps the biggest located U.S side, NY is where I expect it to be based out of.
I still don't understand why so few US people are on Kraken.
Aren't they already located in San Francisco?
Maybe because they don't want to keep their bitcoins in the US ?
Isn't the whole point of bitcoin to give the middle finger to overreaching governments ?
Keeping my money in a tightly regulated US exchange ? No Thanks. I might as well put it in an HSBC account...
22.
Post 5773926 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.27h):
Yeah... if you are managing someone else's stash, then there is more pressures to be careful regarding risks and to go with what, on average, is going to yield the better results.
That's precisely why traders do not play with their own money (unless they do, in which case they are ballsy).
At first my friends didn't understand how I could look at the price going down 25% and do nothing.
They thought that if I sold and bought lower they would be making more money. It's not that simple to explain that you never know if the price is going any lower.
Anyway, I hope I'll make them very happy on the long run.
23.
Post 5774384 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.27h):
O.k. I decided to take some advice from 686f646c (as cautioned above), and I moved 9 BTC from BTC e to a Blockchain.info wallet. It took me nearly a week to accomplish this BTC movement b/c there were technical SNAFUs with my e-mail confirmations to BTC e. I thought that I had confirmed with BTC e via e-mail, and then after three days, my BTC were still in the transfer section of the BTC e fund. Thereafter, I submitted a ticket and got some weird-ass quasi non-responsive e-mails from BTC e support, which made me suspect that the BTC e support English skills are NOT too good.
I then presented my issue in the BTC e troll box, and a couple responders reminded me to make sure that I adequately went through the e-mail confirmation process, which assisted me to identify the problem was that I had NOT properly confirmed.
Anyhow, now I am fixed, and I have removed 9 BTC from BTC e, and put those 9 BTC into a blockchain wallet.... which also caused me concern, yesterday, when blockchain.info was down for quite a long time (more than 10 hours?)
Don't forget to offline some.
24.
Post 5793083 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.27h):
in other news...
bids are growing fast on bitstamp
I would expect a small breakout to $630. Probably today or tomorrow.
Disclaimer: i'm all btc and holding so I don't really care about my own predictions.
25.
Post 5806587 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
ideas for new poll?
how about something like "has the news and trends this year changed your confidence in BTC?"
-Yes, I love bitcoins more!
-No, I don't change that easy.
-No, what news?
-Yes, running for the hills.
-buy
-Sell
-Hodl
-where can I get Bitcorn
just drop hodl already. Its way too lame.
Beside why make a poll thats just for jking around?The polls here are completely useless (like most discussions, see: +1, +2, +3, ...).
I would like to see serious polls with answers that make sense.
26.
Post 6214795 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Woke up to a nice boost in prices for both btc and ltc
Woke up, looked at the price and thought "fucking whales".
27.
Post 6220409 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
Mervyn_Pumpkinhead...
Pumpkinhead...
He must be trolling. Don't feed him... and don't tell me you are trying to educate him.
28.
Post 6228505 (copy this link) (by solarflare) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.37h):
I feel for all the wannabe traders who thought they could short bitcoin. I've learned my lesson a long time ago and have never been so happy to hodl and buy all the way down.
I still think it's a bull trap and we will see $400 again though.
Disclosure: i'm hodling so I couldn't care less about my own predictions.
