All posts made by CoinsCoinsEverywhere in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread



1. Post 7683870 (copy this link) (by CoinsCoinsEverywhere) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 05, 2014, 12:15:51 AM
IMO, if we don't test support tonight we never will, we'll bounce off the launch pad once or twice, break resistance, break away to new highs, top out in the low mid 700's, this level should prove to have very little resistance ( most bears think 680-660 is the "top" so they are selling here and now ) price will quiclky melt up into the low mid 800's the next spot where bears lay down some futile resistance.

I'm curious--what basis are you using for your prediction?  Strictly technical?  There seems to be an awful lot of supply above 660, and no one seems to want to buy up there.  If we can break 700, I think we go much higher after that, but getting there in the near future looks challenging.



2. Post 7683904 (copy this link) (by CoinsCoinsEverywhere) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):

Quote from: Erdogan on July 05, 2014, 02:37:49 AM
What about miners paying power bills?

If someone could be so kind as to find out what KnC and Bitfury/MBP/CEX/GHASH.IO are doing with their mined coins, I'd love to know.  And by find I out, I mean actually find out, not this OTC sales wishy washy bullshit I keep hearing.

Look at it this way. A miner is a person with investment in mining equipment and expenses. When he has mined some coin, he is a holder of coin plus he has investments and expenses. Other holders, without mining investments have other investments and expenses. What is the difference? None.
Everybody hold coins, have investments and expenses, and have to decide to sell or to buy, taking other economic realities into account.

tldr; a miner with coins is no different from other people.

While I agree that everyone has their own set of risks, I think there are psychological differences.  I don't worry about the coins I've mined as much as I would worry about coins that I would have bought, if I had bought some (which I haven't, because it feels riskier).



3. Post 7684413 (copy this link) (by CoinsCoinsEverywhere) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):

Quote from: keithers on July 05, 2014, 06:30:09 AM
wow down we go

I don't see us really falling too low...there isn't really any reason for a sell of right now.   The auction results actually turned out to be strong since the winner is using it for liquidity for his business.   He didn't mention an intention of any of them seeing the open market any time soon...

This probably isn't a huge deal, but it could be factor for the drop:

http://www.coindesk.com/eba-financial-institutions-avoid-bitcoin-pending-regulation/



4. Post 7860026 (copy this link) (by CoinsCoinsEverywhere) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.59h):

Quote from: kodtycoon on July 15, 2014, 03:49:51 PM
https://twitter.com/winklevoss/status/489060649838714881

etf just around the corner? Cheesy
I guess it depends on what you mean by just around the corner.  From what I've read and watched, there's still a chance it will never happen.  And if it does, it might be Q4 of this year.  But we can always hope for sooner. Wink



5. Post 7862504 (copy this link) (by CoinsCoinsEverywhere) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.59h):

Quote from: BitChick on July 15, 2014, 04:46:17 PM
I guess it depends on what you mean by just around the corner.  From what I've read and watched, there's still a chance it will never happen.  And if it does, it might be Q4 of this year.  But we can always hope for sooner. Wink

From what I have heard the fact that they have have a "ticker" and are updating their prospectus everything is looking really good for launching:  From Bloomberg: "there were several very specific changes added to the risk section of the prospectus. That's worth noting, since plenty of ETFs are filed with the SEC but don't get updated (or reserve tickers)."  See for more info: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-10/bitcoin-by-bitcoin-the-winklevii-etf-inches-closer-to-reality.html
I agree that they seem to be making good progress, and I hope they're able to roll it out in the next few months.  However, it's nowhere close to being guaranteed.  From that same article, "There's still no guarantee COIN will be approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission. There are more than a thousand prospectuses for ETFs sitting with the SEC, and hundreds of reserved tickers sitting with stock exchanges."  I would think that as long as the twins are persistent, they'll eventually be able to launch it.  But I don't know much about the different things that can prevent an ETF from seeing the light of day.



6. Post 7867621 (copy this link) (by CoinsCoinsEverywhere) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.59h):

Quote from: ShroomsKit on July 15, 2014, 11:14:33 PM
For the last 4 weeks every day people post charts that show how we are about to go up. If anything we go down.
Could it be that drawing lines on a chart is completely and totally useless?
Perception is reality in auction-based markets like bitcoin.  What matters most is what everyone believes.  If enough people believe it's going up, then it will go up, and vice-versa.  That's why chart patterns work fairly often.  Most people look at the same or similar charts.  So if a classic pattern like a wedge, double-top/bottom, head and shoulders, etc., sets up, a lot of people are looking for it to follow through.  They act based on that, and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Of course there are other things that can change perception, like fundamentals.  But in the absence of ground-shaking news, technical analysis tends to do pretty well.



7. Post 7893557 (copy this link) (by CoinsCoinsEverywhere) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.59h):

Quote from: stan.distortion on July 17, 2014, 01:39:40 PM
muahahhaha, the worldbank found out the truth about bitcoin:

bitcoin is a "naturally occuring ponzi"

http://www.coindesk.com/world-bank-report-bitcoin-naturally-occurring-ponzi/

man those "naturally-occurring-central-bankers" are funny.... Cheesy

Lol, maybe everything looks like a ponzi when you're the world leader in them Wink Actually, they're right and so are the pyramid scheme claims, what they neglect to mention is its a reverse pyramid, the folks normally at the bottom are on the top and the few with most of the world wealth are the last ones in.

Bitcoin is not a ponzi scheme.  Period.  People have been throwing that word around way too much since the Madoff case.  By definition, a ponzi scheme has a single person or entity through which all the funds flow.  That is obviously not true of bitcoin.  It amazes me (although perhaps it shouldn't) that someone associated with the world bank would be so sloppy.



8. Post 7895286 (copy this link) (by CoinsCoinsEverywhere) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.59h):

Quote from: stan.distortion on July 17, 2014, 02:46:09 PM

Its not really news, its the same anti money laundering requirements as any financial service and most exchanges already comply with it. As far as I can see merchants and normal users aren't required to jump through those hoops so its not hindering uptake for mainstream adoption.

EDIT:
...
Bitcoin is not a ponzi scheme.  Period.  People have been throwing that word around way too much since the Madoff case.  By definition, a ponzi scheme has a single person or entity through which all the funds flow.  That is obviously not true of bitcoin.  It amazes me (although perhaps it shouldn't) that someone associated with the world bank would be so sloppy.

Bitcoin is a Bubblicious ponzi scheme!

buy Buy BUY!

 Cheesy

Lol Smiley Ok, Ponzi is just plain wrong but reverse pyramid is accurate.
I'm not really sure how it's a pyramid or inverted/reverse pyramid scheme, either.  Could you please explain?

And btw, the reason I'm being nit-picky about such terminology is because of the connotations that go with it.  "Ponzi," "pyramid scheme," and for that matter, just "scheme," are very negative.  Maybe Satoshi Nakamoto created bitcoin to be some sort of elaborate scheme, but that's becoming less likely as it gains acceptance and trades freely in open markets, if for no other reason than that it would be more profitable to slowly sell off his stash than, say, dump all of it on the open market and crash it.



9. Post 7933430 (copy this link) (by CoinsCoinsEverywhere) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.59h):

Quote from: Argwai96 on July 20, 2014, 05:32:08 AM
The high and low price is becoming a tighter and tighter range...is this the calm before the storm?  Given our history, we can only be stable for so long before there's some more action...

Yep, bollinger bands have been pretty squeezy recently, should see a strong move soon. I just hope it's to the upside.... been holding and waiting for a breakout a few weeks now. Smiley

Yeah, I believe the last time we were stable for a good amount of time we ended up flash crashing...so hopefully this is the opposite this time around

Which time was that? Price volatility has really died generally the past couple months. Price action right now reminds me of the $440-450 level, tbh, but I don't want to get my hopes up, either. Tongue
I agree.  It does have a similar feel to $450.  And I like the way volume has been dropping on the successive dips that have occurred in July.  That would seem to suggest less selling conviction.  News seems to be pretty positive lately, too.



10. Post 8001651 (copy this link) (by CoinsCoinsEverywhere) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.00h):

Quote from: iram3130 on July 24, 2014, 11:22:13 AM
Hey!
If someone wants to earn few bucks during few hours this is a good time to buy few BTCs and sell at the end of a day.

$614 is quite low and I predict that it won't go lower today.

I think none of your previous predictions were correct. Maybe you should take that as a hint.

Predicting market is one of the hardest task in trading world, because if you are really that good in predicting then you most probably won't spent so much time on forum like this. Or you will create your blog and sell your prediction.
Unless you are rich enough to control a particular market, it's impossible to know exactly what will happen when.  Some trades have higher probability than others, but it's a chaotic system that's impossible to get right all the time.



11. Post 8003423 (copy this link) (by CoinsCoinsEverywhere) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.00h):

Quote from: numisma on July 24, 2014, 01:54:02 PM
This sure looks wierd. Whoever started the dump from cca $620 can't get back in at the moment, as there are far less sell orders to take us back than the amount that's been dumped since then. Someone is going to get burned hard IMO.

Probably had their bids preplanned and placed already awaiting others to panic and sell into them.  Smiley
Or they actually sold. You know, without the anticipation to buy lower?  Wink

Who'd want to sell at this stage without buying back in? I mean, with all the good plans/news regarding BTC for the next year?
How about people who are trying to pay off all their new mining equipment?  Profit margins are pretty small these days.



12. Post 8418870 (copy this link) (by CoinsCoinsEverywhere) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on August 18, 2014, 02:58:39 PM
wow... you have spent too much time on this thread Jorge...  you are sounding more and more like a troll lunatic/Bitcointalk.org member/one of us than an academic that anyone would take seriously, shame for you.  

The language may be a failed attempt to be funny but the opinion is quite serious.  What we saw since May/20 was a sudden rise from ~440$ to ~640 that no one can (or wants to) explain, then seven weeks of wandering around 600$, then a sudden drop back to ~470, that no one can (or wants to) explain either.   Why is it absurd to consider all that as a single event?

I have proposed a partial explanation: starting May/20, a few people got wind of something that made them buy all they could.  Now those people changed their minds, and dumped everything back.  So the price got back to where it was.  Is this so much sillier than the narwhals(*) that people have been discussing here?

(*) a large sea mammal reputed to be a cross between a whale and a unicorn.

I'm not sure how accurate it is, but a Coindesk article from a few days ago (http://www.coindesk.com/margin-trading-crash-price-bitcoin/) gave a good hypothesis: margin trading.  A lot of people borrowed money on margin to buy at the end of May, which led to the rally.  Now all of those trades are being undone as people's positions are being liquidated due to margin calls.  That seems very plausible.  I just wish someone had made light of that (prominently) in June.



13. Post 8572541 (copy this link) (by CoinsCoinsEverywhere) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.09h):

Quote from: jonoiv on August 28, 2014, 04:08:01 PM
It's very unlikely that the vast majority of the asics are not already running.  As there is a good chance many of the asics are already run at a loss.  turning them on at the same time makes no sense.

Just because running older ASICs results in a loss right now doesn't mean that it would end up being a loss later.  If you really believe that the price of bitcoin is going to go up significantly, running old hardware now still makes sense as a speculative bet.



14. Post 9308138 (copy this link) (by CoinsCoinsEverywhere) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.26h):

My 2 cents:

I wish it weren't true because I want the price to go up, but I think we need a game-changer to get another real rally going.  Some things that I think might qualify include a very (preferably unexpectedly) positive revision of BitLicense or an announcement about an actual listing date for a bitcoin ETF on an exchange.  Barring something big like that, I think we'll test the 266 area again because I think the collective market wants to know if that level will actually hold.  I think many people expected a bounce off that area, which is why we got a good, strong one.  But I'm not sure how many people believe that it will hold a second time...and more importantly, what happens if it doesn't.

The one technical thing that I think could lead to a new, sustained rally is TRUE capitulation.  And by true capitulation I don't mean the dip into the 200s that we saw recently.  I mean where even some of the earlier adopters start to question if bitcoin will survive.  I think the market has been saturated with newcomers (myself included) since the rally at the end of last year, and it really needs a reset where most of those people are wiped out.  Otherwise, I feel like we're just slowly going to sink under the weight of the miners, at least for a fairly extended period of time.

Long term, I think there's still hope.  But short/medium term, I think we need something big to ignite another rally.



15. Post 26763136 (copy this link) (by CoinsCoinsEverywhere) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.34h):

Quote from: BobLawblaw on December 22, 2017, 06:18:28 AM
Any idea what is driving this selloff and volatility ?

Just Bitcoin being fickle ? Situation normal ?

More curious than seriously concerned.
Aside from the need for a serious correction after such a crazy run-up this year, I think at least part of it is the South Korean exchange Youbit filing for bankruptcy after being hacked by North Korea.

Edit: If you look at the daily charts, there were also some technical indicators pointing to a significant correction--namely price-MACD and price-volume divergences.  The beginning of November, when the Segwit2x fork was canceled, was the last time there was a price-MACD divergence.  Price dropped about 30-35% during that correction.



16. Post 26763645 (copy this link) (by CoinsCoinsEverywhere) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.34h):

Quote from: mfort312 on December 22, 2017, 06:35:19 AM
I really want to see one final total panic sell, all the way down to $10,000 in a matter of minutes, all out hysteria, just like the old days. Enough of this tortuous creeping down and half-assed attempts at recovery. This shit is barely showing up on the weekly candles. Just be done with it, so we can resume our journey out of the solar system as we hitch a ride with Voyager to the next one.

Even more than this, I really want to see BeeCrash explode on the launchpad and slam into the ground; for the love of God and all that is holy, I'm not a religious person by any means, but I'll become one if that's what it takes to please let it drop below $1000. Tonight. Please. Pray with me brethren. And if there might just be a whale-brother who might still be holding it, dump it like a load of bad spicy Mexican food, full eye-watering evacuation. Don't even bother flushing. Just leave it for the next guy to share in mutual disgust.

Amen.

I think you meant $10,000 the second time, too, right?  A drop below $1,000 tonight would take quite a miracle, but would be quite the buying opportunity.