All posts made by Specular in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 9791951 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.38h):
Hello all,
I think that the most relevant factor to the BTC price today is the same factor that (I believe) has impacted all risk-related markets worldwide - China's decision to tighten up credit in corporate and local government debt. There are a number of major geo-political risks rattling out there (oil plunge, US dollar rise, China's debt-fueled growth and EU's debt ridden PIGS).
My guess is that BTC COULD benefit if one of these risks goes into full-on meltdown mode. On the other hands, if Central Banks can calm markets and slather on some more QE, stocks could keep rising (taking away from BTC's safe-haven appeal).
Relevant:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-09/china-s-rate-swaps-surge-most-since-june-2013-as-bonds-tumble.htmlhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/09/china-debt-regulations-idUSL3N0TT03T20141209
2.
Post 9792048 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.38h):
"BTC's safe-haven appeal"
I love newbies.
Ahh the welcoming embrace of online forums!
3.
Post 9917925 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.40h):
I am interested to see whether the "Bitcoin Bowl" will have any impact this Friday.
http://stpetersburgbowl.com/
4.
Post 9951048 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.41h):
Anyone have any thoughts on Today's Bitcoin Bowl?
I see it as an opportunity for startups and the Bitcoin community to distribute tons of coins and get attention. It would have been wise for Bitpay to give every person in the stadium some coins. I know that there are a number of people and brands that will be dishing coins out over Twitter.
IMHO, 2014 has seen a ton of merchant adoption and hype - but bitcoin distribution and casual transactions are where the near-term Bitcoin opportunities lie. These take advantage of Bitcoin's unique properties better than using fiat to buy BTC just to buy things that can be bought with fiat (overstock, MSFT games etc).
5.
Post 9953171 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.41h):
I was wondering which exchanges people around here focus on when watching BTC charts. The Chinese exchanges seem to have the most volume (OK Coin, Huobi).
6.
Post 9954060 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.41h):
Huge volume on OKCoin.
It is so funny that when BTC has a good PR day thanks to BitcoinBowl - the price takes a huge dump.
7.
Post 10028729 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
$275 is being tested - major area of resistance here.
This could get bloody - or we are in for a bounce soon.
8.
Post 10028797 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
Did the bearwhale flash crash happen on a weekend? I forget
9.
Post 10028993 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
Could be a double bottom... we will have to wait for confirmation on higher time frame - 4H, 12H 1D
I get the feeling that some serious tectonic plates are moving in the world - Oil is acting crazy, the USD had a very bold move in the last few trading hours on Friday, and stocks are very volatile in last December (which is usually chill Santa Rally time).
I am not sure if BTC will fall into the "risk asset" bucket and get dumped along with risky assets, or if it will be considered a safe haven due to financial instability in places such as Russia, Turkey, Greece etc...
10.
Post 10029077 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
Crazy volume on BitFinex. Interesting 1H close - nice bounce off 275... but its still early, bears may try to crack that nut one more time.
11.
Post 10029323 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
That Volatility... amazing...


lmao
At least its not boring like all of December's sideways action.
12.
Post 10040725 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
This 255ish area SHOULD be a major battle ground. If we have a daily or weekly close well below that area (the previous ATH), this would be a pretty significant break of a major support IMO.
So far we have peeked underneath, but the question is whether we will see a clean and decisive break.
13.
Post 10040842 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
This 255ish area SHOULD be a major battle ground. If we have a daily or weekly close well below that area (the previous ATH),
The daily and weekly both closed below this level...
I see wicks peeking under that level. I need to see a solid red candle close well under 255.
14.
Post 10040899 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
OKcoin and Bitfinex have some volume coming in...
15.
Post 10041111 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
Meanwhile - the EURO opened on Monday (in Asia) at the lowest point in 9 years... It feels like tectonic plates are shifting in the financial markets outside of Crypto.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b94dcf2a-9475-11e4-82c7-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl
16.
Post 10041181 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
Euro is finished. Greece being taken over by the f-ing nazis. Germany being a total d-bag and UK too drunk to notice whats happening.
lol interesting summary.
17.
Post 10041871 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
The BitStamp news is very interesting....
It's odd that the price has not reacted at all. There is even some light buy volume on BitStamp.
Crazy days.
18.
Post 10041888 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
Maybe someone stole BitStamps hot wallet coins and dumped them all as quickly as they could - causing the latest price collapse?
19.
Post 10041954 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
Maybe someone stole BitStamps hot wallet coins and dumped them all as quickly as they could - causing the latest price collapse?
Or this is Bitstamp's way of halting the crash. Or their hot wallet really is just temporarily buggered
Informing your customers that there is a problem with the hot wallet and that deposits may result in private keys being lost is one very risky way of halting a crash. Who knows... It is just strange that the price is taking all this in stride.
20.
Post 10042022 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
Informing your customers that there is a problem with the hot wallet and that deposits may result in private keys being lost is one very risky way of halting a crash. Who knows... It is just strange that the price is taking all this in stride.
If no one can send bitcoins into the exchange, they won't have any to sell.
True.
21.
Post 10047804 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
Has it been confirmed that the 18K coins were in fact stolen on the 4th of Jan like Stamp claims?
I am just wondering if the sell-off over the last few days was related to the theft... Perhaps someone stole these coins and began to dump immediately to get rid of the stolen BTC and move into Fiat. Just a theory.
22.
Post 10048670 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
From Reddit -
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2repff/bitstamp_exchange_issues_megathread/cnf6gdpuser baron1703 wrote:
Observations:
Known Bitstamp cold storage:
https://blockchain.info/address/1JoktQJhCzuCQkt3GnQ8Xddcq4mUgNyXEaSuspicious address:
https://blockchain.info/address/1L2JsXHPMYuAa9ugvHGLwkdstCPUDemNCfTransactions started to appear in the suspicious address after 1am european time on 04.01.15. The first transactions had fees of 0.55 and 1 btc, respectively. These continue thought the day with fees of around 0.1btc. First complaints of deposit issues started during the day. Stamp sent out an email the NEXT day, shortly thereafter suspending its site.
As can be seen here (
http://www.walletexplorer.com/wallet/6e20c5b8ebb819c7?from_address=1L2JsXHPMYuAa9ugvHGLwkdstCPUDemNCf), the transactions coming into the 1L2JsX address are from bitstamp addresses (note that this page is not real time, so not all new transactions are displayed).
The cold storage address mentioned above was not touched since mid december. The first new transactions in this address appear at around 10pm european time on 04.01.15. This appears to be a sweep of hot wallet addresses and brings in about 10k btc. Notice the specific structure this sweep transaction has (example:
https://blockchain.info/tx/c84a1b8e7aaeae81cf3a1db7e37fdd6befbedafb4213338f412c6981b9469553) - a round amount is swept to the cold storage, an arbitrary amount is put in another address where it is combined with other inputs and swept again. This pattern is not observed in the 1L2JsX address. Furthermore, fees in the cold storage address vary from 0.0001 to 0.001, depending on size - again, unlike the 1L2JsX address.
IF the 1L2JsX address indeed belongs to a hacker, bitstamp COULD be missing 18,865btc, with the remaining 134,872btc in its cold storage wallet. It appears that only these two addresses have been used for sweeping. This would imply a loss of 12% of all held bitcoins.
One of the bitstamp founders (
https://twitter.com/nejc_kodric) tweeted: "To restate: the bulk of our bitcoin are in cold storage, and remain completely safe." Interpret that as you will.
23.
Post 10048877 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
IF the 18K in BTC has been lost, I wonder what Stamp will do. 18K=$5M dollars or so.
They can either cover the loss with the $10M in VC money they raised in Dec of 2013, or they could force their users to eat the loss (though that would effectively destroy their reputation, killing the VCs investment).
My guess is that they are on the phone with their VCs trying to decide what to do (their $10M round was funded by Pantera Capital). I bet that heads will roll (New CTO or CEO), the company will likely eat the loss, and the funds will be replaced with their VC money. Perhaps they will drop the price some more so that they can buy up cheap coins to replace the 18K they just lost.
24.
Post 10051518 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
It seems like the $5M question is whether Stamp has spare BTC to cover the loss, or do they have to buy some of those 18K btcs in the market to return back to their users.
If they make everyone whole and swallow the loss, I wonder how Stamp users will feel? Do you switch because they were hacked, or do you stay loyal because they made everyone whole even after they fucked up. I mean shit happens, its nice to know that they are willing to take a hit to preserve their users' funds (like Blockchain did when some of their wallets were hacked).
25.
Post 10051635 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
Only in Bitcoin could one of famous exchanges announce hack and people start buying immediately after

I really don't understand this
My guess is that this is because:
a) People are relieved that Stamp said they will honor their user's balance and eat the loss with reserves (first GOX-like event that is handled professionally)
b) Speculators are betting that Stamp will have to buy 18K in the market to cover the lost coins
c) Bitcoin is upside-down crazyland where up is down and left is right (though I have experienced this in other markets too)
26.
Post 10061117 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
BitFinex just had some volume move in...
27.
Post 10062644 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
Bitcoin needs constant publicity. Out of sight is out of mind. Although, I'd prefer if it was a bit more impartial / researched than just 'moon', 'doom' or 'interwebs money'.
As an aside, I feel there is a real push to see $200.
You really believe 200 is possible?
No, I don't believe it, I just bought 10 coins @ 285 and now the price is at 285.4

lol
28.
Post 10072195 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
https://twitter.com/nejc_kodric/status/552861244714405891We are fully rebuilding our systems from the ground up so that customers can use @Bitstamp with full confidence and trust. - Nejc Kodrič
Uhm

Prepare for launch any second now! We are mere hours away before they have rebuilt the entire site from the ground up

lol
I had a similar reaction when I read that. When something needs to be rebuilt from the ground up because it was unsecure, it does not inspire a great deal of confidence in those who built it initially, and are now rebuilding it.
29.
Post 10072714 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
I am proud fiat baghodler on stamp since 480 levels and I dont feel any urgency to buy all the cheap coins once stamp opens its gates.
If and when stamp opens its gates Im sure you are right there wont be a stampede (HA HA) by fiat holders like yourself to immediately buy cheap coins. Likewise all those with coin will not rush to sell, most will remove their coins to safety causing a run on their reserves. The net effect of this episode at stamp will be for all coin holders at all exchanges to leave no more on the exchange than absolutely necessary for trading. This may leave less net coins on exchanges for use in leveraged short positions, although I suspect that fractional reserve banking means the lent coins dont actually exist.
My thinking is that if I was holding fiat on Stamp, I may consider buying BTC as soon as they re-open, then withdraw them to safety asap. Fiat takes a long time to withdraw, and there will likely be a huge flood of people looking to get their fiat out of stamp. A coin withdrawal may be the fastest way out for those who lost faith in Stamp.
But really, who the fuck knows. We will see if they open Stamp back up in "24-48 hrs".
This rally above 300 suggests that traders are expecting some buying pressure. I would FUCKING HATE MY LIFE if I was heavily leveraged short via Stamp right now (thought I must admit I never used Stamp, so I have no idea how that would look/work).
30.
Post 10072794 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
I am proud fiat baghodler on stamp since 480 levels and I dont feel any urgency to buy all the cheap coins once stamp opens its gates.
If and when stamp opens its gates Im sure you are right there wont be a stampede (HA HA) by fiat holders like yourself to immediately buy cheap coins. Likewise all those with coin will not rush to sell, most will remove their coins to safety causing a run on their reserves. The net effect of this episode at stamp will be for all coin holders at all exchanges to leave no more on the exchange than absolutely necessary for trading. This may leave less net coins on exchanges for use in leveraged short positions, although I suspect that fractional reserve banking means the lent coins dont actually exist.
My thinking is that if I was holding fiat on Stamp, I may consider buying BTC as soon as they re-open, then withdraw them to safety asap. Fiat takes a long time to withdraw, and there will likely be a huge flood of people looking to get their fiat out of stamp. A coin withdrawal may be the fastest way out for those who lost faith in Stamp.
But really, who the fuck knows. We will see if they open Stamp back up in "24-48 hrs".
This rally above 300 suggests that traders are expecting some buying pressure. I would FUCKING HATE MY LIFE if I was heavily leveraged short via Stamp right now (thought I must admit I never used Stamp, so I have no idea how that would look/work).
I don't think stamp does leverage.
I was wondering about that. Like I said, I have never used Stamp, but it is my understanding that you could short via some weird 3rd party manner. Leverage or not, I would hate to be in a short position via Stamp and be locked out of the market watching us breach 300.
As an aside - what site/source do you fine gentlemen use to see the level of short positions currently open?
31.
Post 10072819 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
For those wondering, this is the change that Pantera's CEO made to his profile on Pantera's website.
https://panteracapital.com/about/DAN MOREHEAD
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
A day ago it was
DAN MOREHEAD
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER & CHAIRMAN OF BITSTAMP
It is funny because Pantera is both a VC firm and a Hedge Fund that is heavily long BTC. So this Stamp story is a double whammy to their reputation and to the price of their reason for being - Bitcoin.
32.
Post 10073990 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
Total sum of active swaps: 23,828.11 BTC. Atleast we have some fuel to get back over 300$.
What do you use to track this #?
33.
Post 10075875 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
China should be waking up around now. Lets see if they can rattle BTC into some kind of movement.
34.
Post 10076157 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
1 hr chart on OK coin:

35.
Post 10086761 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
Oh my, these posts are going to be so funny to read when Bitcoin is $100k. People arguing over 10's of dollars lol !!!!
In a few years $10 will be worth nothing assuming the dollar fails to be the world reserve currency and people lose faith in it.
Fiat paper is simply....toilet paper with ink on it.
I believe that a lot of Fiat currencies are in for trouble in 2015 - Russia, The Euro, Turkey, Argentina, Russia's satellite states (such as Belarus) and even some Asian currencies mixed up in the devaluation currency war between China and Japan.
But of all the currencies out there, I think the USD has the biggest chance of thriving. The US has the biggest economy, it has the most advanced military, it has the rule of law, it has a crap ton of food/resources and it has a strong, dynamic and growing economy.
Think about this - where would you want to keep a couple million dollars for 5 years? In China it can get confiscated, Japan is a QE freakshow with a declining population, in Russia your fate is tied to Putin and Oil, the Eurozone is about to go through some serious shit with Greece again, and most other places (except for the tiny nation of Switzerland) are a complete gamble. I don't get all these "US dollar will be worthless" people. The USD is the safe place to keep big pools of $ long term - bearing any major unexpected political or social black swan that knocks America down a peg or two.
The people who need BTC aren't Americans, its those poor bastards buying toasters and flatscreens to try to save their quickly depreciating savings.
Just my 2 cents.
36.
Post 10095911 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
It's funny that they re-open as the banks close for the weekend.
This may be a play with Pantera et al to make back some of their $5M by trading the re-opening or something. Keep in mind that Pantera also happens to be a hedge fund that is heavily long BTC...
37.
Post 10156274 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.48h):
We're coiling again....

38.
Post 10156299 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.48h):
We're coiling again....

Will we bounce up or dig down?
That's the million dollar question

39.
Post 10156569 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.48h):
Calm before the storm... eerily still considered the last 48 hrs
40.
Post 10157244 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.48h):
Can someone explain these "four punch raids" or point me to where this is outlined?
I think I know what this is referring to, but I am not 100%.
41.
Post 10159192 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.49h):
Too early to call reversal. Probably just short covering
Shorts rose to 26k, not covering yet.
When I see the data regarding shorts, I see the past 1 hr and the past 24 hrs - is there anywhere that shows that overall short vs long leverage positions?
42.
Post 10159208 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.49h):
Too early to call reversal. Probably just short covering
Shorts rose to 26k, not covering yet.
When I see the data regarding shorts, I see the past 1 hr and the past 24 hrs - is there anywhere that shows that overall short vs long leverage positions?
http://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/totals.phpyou can use the zoom function
Thanks!
43.
Post 10165244 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.49h):
Whats your point then? Buying at 100$?
Margin sell now.
Ouch
did Huobi died?
Yeah, whats up with that?
44.
Post 10165716 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.49h):
Huobi's website is up... anyone actually trading on there - can you confirm if the site's trade engine works (meaning the Bitcoinwisdom stall is just an api issue)
45.
Post 10181250 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.50h):
Besides Bitcoin Wisdom, what are some good sites for looking at the order books on the major exchanges?
46.
Post 10181330 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.50h):
47.
Post 10209428 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.51h):
swiss central bank depegs the franc from the euro ..
the Dow Jones sinks over 2%, while silver went up 7% and gold went up 4.5%:"
bitcoin being in it's own world is.....down.
it seem like something wrong in bitcoin world .
remember, even if currently about 800k $ get invested into Bitcoin, it will only cover the inflation. You have to add every merchant instantly selling + regular sellers.
That's a hell of selling pressure every day. That's the main reason we will most likely stay in this bear market until something drastic happens. Like a Fiat Currency Crashing (€, $ or ¥).
If nothing magical happens, the next halving of the mining reward would at least take out some pressure so the currency could grow in value.
yup i do remember the inflation of 3600 bitcoins everyday. i agree with your assessment. i think the swiss didn't unpeg from euro and hurt their own economy just for the heck of it. somethings going on.
There was an influx of money into their country ..its pretty much made them de-peg. I'm basing this off one article I read though
Any chance of a link to the article ?
Here are a few perspectives on the Swiss Franc situation:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11349479/Switzerland-capitulates-on-franc-as-global-currency-wars-take-next-victim.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/opinion/paul-krugman-francs-fear-and-folly.htmlhttp://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2015/01/currencies
48.
Post 10209828 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.51h):
Regarding the Swiss Franc - I think that the event is further evidence that there are some serious tectonic plates shifting in the financial markets. Oil is going nuts, the Eurozone has a serious deflation and unemployment crisis (along with a number of acute events on the horizon - ECB QE decision and Greek Election), China's slowing down while it experiences a weird stock market bubble and Japan is running an unprecedented monetary experiment in the hopes of ending a decade of deflation.
The question is whether Bitcoin will be considered a Safe Asset due to the fact that it can't be controled by a central bank, or will it be lumped into the "risk asset" category and go down with oil and stocks...
I think that it will depend on what financial events happen over the next 6-12 months, the status of the Bitcoin ETF and of course the broader adoption of Bitcoin (or something built on Bitcoin) by average consumers.
49.
Post 10209945 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.51h):
History has a lot of lessons on the dangers of deflation. Many people intuitively see prices declining as a good thing - cheaper food etc.
But when prices go down too much, there are a number of serious dangers:
- Debt levels go up in real terms (and most people/companies are in debt)
- Companies don't invest in new projects because they think prices will keep dropping
- People don't spend as much on big ticket items - also expecting prices to be lower in the future
50.
Post 10210002 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.51h):
So being economic is bad. Lets waste as much resources as possible instead. Buy stuff we don't need!
Exactly! System works, everyone wins!
51.
Post 10212007 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.51h):
Bitfinex flat on Bitcoinwisdom - is the API just down or has trading ground to a halt?
52.
Post 10212528 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.51h):
Volume...
53.
Post 10212770 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.51h):
Serious thrashing going on... decent volume too..
Will they or won't they - It's basically Ross & Rachel all over again..
54.
Post 10212993 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.51h):
Volume...
people sometimes need to take a break from trading

55.
Post 10219701 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.51h):
Price has flatlined since the Coinbase announcement pop.
56.
Post 10224571 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.51h):

OK Coin
57.
Post 10230432 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.51h):

Coiling we are.
58.
Post 10230800 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.51h):
For all those doubting how amateurish
and criminal our exchanges are, tune in yourself:
http://vocaroo.com/i/s1JIOjeIjWbNA professional criminal would never slip up, and an honest amateur would not do this. But when you combine both, you get the clusterfuck we have.
I was listening on TS when these discussions took place (both the original and the following shitstorm) and I don't think there is any real problem with him or his activities at this point.
It's one of those things when everybody can be 99.9% sure about something and doesn't really care (they accept it as a part of "the game") but they want to brutally execute the man on the spot as soon as he admits it.
I for one, appreciate his honesty and I like his style. I am somewhat similar in this regard and I also got into trouble by similar behavior a few times (I refused to deny my obvious activities unlike everybody else, even though nobody was dumb enough to believe the others are innocent).
I was also listened to that chat live - I agree with you.
59.
Post 10231412 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.51h):
Chinese exchanges are creeeping higher. 1330 and 1350 are big horizontal resistance levels that have been tested a great number of times over the last few days.
60.
Post 10232319 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.51h):
Bitcointalk is back. Bullish!

lol
61.
Post 10421930 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.57h):
What's up with OKcoins order book on BitcoinWisdom?
62.
Post 10432522 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.58h):
Chiming in on the Greek situation.
One of the interesting things I have learned over the last few days has been how the bailout money was actually used.
Just like in 2008, the bailouts were designed to prevent a broader financial panic involving the banks. Of the 230 billion euros that Greece received, only 11% actually stayed in Greece to finance government activity. The rest was used to pay back old bondholders (mainly Greek and European Banks) and make interest payments.
Instead of defaulting 5 years ago, the Greeks were strong-armed into a bailout designed to prevent panic. Then the crisis spread to other countries, and the EU has muddled through from one crisis to the next for 5 years. After losing 25% of GDP, a chronic unemployment rate above 26% and with debt at 170 debt/GDP ratios, the Greeks are screwed and, more importantly, they have nothing to lose. They either default and possibly leave the Euro, or they stick with the horrible depression they have been in for 5yrs.
The difference is that if they default today, German and Italian banks will not take a hit, BUT if they default (and especially if they leave the Euro), the financial and political ramifications are impossible to predict. It could be the EU's Lehman moment.
I am surprised that the Germans are letting this get so unpleasant. The amount the Greeks want is nothing compared to the strategic importance of Greece as a NATO ally. They must be seriously worried about the signal they would send to Spain and Italy if they agree to let Greece write off some debt. The political environment in Europe is turning against Germany - the real wild-card in this situation are Austerity-weary voters.
Source for the bailout stats (Martin Wolf of the FT)-
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/44c56806-a556-11e4-ad35-00144feab7de.html#axzz3RNvpcnSg
63.
Post 10433849 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.58h):

Coiling feeling...
64.
Post 10504872 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.59h):
Line breached. Going to retest $215-$220 pretty soon.
It's just a matter of time before it crashes again.

In my experience, such lines can be tested like this without completely being broken...
Let's see if we can get a couple solid closes below the trend line (if we get an stay below 1440 IMHO).
65.
Post 10517638 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.59h):
Forgive my ignorance but what does Greece have to do with the price of BTC?
Nothing.
Until I unveil my brilliant plan.
Airdrop Bitcoin ATMs that only accept Drachmas and Euros all over Greece!
You heard it here first folks. (jk)
66.
Post 10517703 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.59h):
In all seriousness, the Greek situation demonstrates how important Bitcoin COULD be. There is a nation of 11 Million people who may soon discover that their chequing accounts are part of a high-stakes game of poker between Angela Merkel and Syriza.
There is a 5-15% chance that the Greeks leave the Euro in 2015 and are forced into converting to Drachmas (IMHO). Greek savers will collectively lose Billions of dollars in buying power if that happens.
Most people don't worry about Capital controls, banking panics and access to their life savings until they are faced with a major crisis, and then people make emotional decisions.
That being said - the Cyprus Pump was probably not caused by Cypriots buying BTC hand over fist, and if we get a Greek pump, I doubt that much of the volume will come from Greek people. It is more of idea that the Market recognizes such events as damaging to the present financial system (which has only been in place for 40~ years). It is the same reason Gold may rise if there is a "Grexit" - 80% speculation, 20% increase in real buying. This last paragraph is 90% my biased opinion - as is most of this post lol.
67.
Post 10518023 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.59h):
In all seriousness, the Greek situation demonstrates how important Bitcoin COULD be. There is a nation of 11 Million people who may soon discover that their chequing accounts are part of a high-stakes game of poker between Angela Merkel and Syriza.
There is a 5-15% chance that the Greeks leave the Euro in 2015 and are forced into converting to Drachmas (IMHO). Greek savers will collectively lose Billions of dollars in buying power if that happens.
Most people don't worry about Capital controls, banking panics and access to their life savings until they are faced with a major crisis, and then people make emotional decisions.
That being said - the Cyprus Pump was probably not caused by Cypriots buying BTC hand over fist, and if we get a Greek pump, I doubt that much of the volume will come from Greek people. It is more of idea that the Market recognizes such events as damaging to the present financial system (which has only been in place for 40~ years). It is the same reason Gold may rise if there is a "Grexit" - 80% speculation, 20% increase in real buying. This last paragraph is 90% my biased opinion - as is most of this post lol.
Greece biggest problem is that they spend more than they make. The USA too, but the Americans have unlimited credit lines and can always print more money.
Greece's biggest problem is that it is insolvent. It a 170% Debt/GDP ratio. It actually has a current budget surplus (government revenue is more than spending) - but the interest and debt burden is killing them.
This is why it is so fascinating. The most logical thing for them to do is to default HARD on that debt, start from a clean slate, and we will all be vacationing in Greece next year due to the affordable prices. The Greeks are already in the worst case senario, it can't get much worse economically - the only place where it can get worse is that the Greke population may take a haircut on their savings by converting to Drachmas. If I was in charge of Greece, and I was brave enough, I'd default.
68.
Post 10527016 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.59h):
Greek deal is reached (apparently - though we have had many false starts). Bitcoin is flat... interesting.
69.
Post 10527166 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.59h):
Greek deal is reached (apparently - though we have had many false starts). Bitcoin is flat... interesting.
It's so funny to watch. Syriza was all like "we're getting out of the Euro, blablabla".
What did they get? An extension which would have been granted to any political party who would have won.
A change of name for the Troika, so that they can brag to the Greek citizens.
Ridiculous.
I guess they capitulated when they saw how close their Banks were to complete collapse (1Billion Euro Deposit flight today). That, or they threatened their families lol.
Though this isn't over until its over. I would not be surprised if the Greeks throw a curve ball - maybe deliver some watered down version on Monday and we are back to "he said she said".
70.
Post 10647685 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):

Most compelling TA I have seen in a long time.
Credit fomocoin.com
71.
Post 10651193 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):
12 hr chart on bfx is striped. Massive buying during the day in the west and dumping during daylight hours in China. Four days in a row. two days before that it shows up again.
If this pattern continues, buying at night could generate FAST profits. Hold for 12 hrs, dump, buy backlower, rinse and repeat.
Comparing the okcoin and huobi 12hr pretty much confirms this western bias to the rally. Not sure that the east cares or understands completely what the pink sheet might facilitate when it starts in 2 weeks™.
How do you know it will be 2 weeks until the pink sheets start?
72.
Post 10672921 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.02h):
Can someone be my eyes on this tweet?
Behind work firewall, can't access the twitter.

73.
Post 10956366 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.08h):
>300 in ~2weeks


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Post 10957987 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.08h):
75.
Post 10958242 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.08h):
Bitcoin loves to coil....

76.
Post 11012368 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.09h):
Can you guys exactly tell me what is GBTC, and how it's working?
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quoteGBTC is going to be the world's first publicly traded Bitcoin fund. Barry Silbert launched this thing in 2013 and they found a sneaky backdoor to putting a "Bitcoin fund" on a public exchange by publicly selling shares that have been held for 12+ months on an "Over the counter" market (not a top-tier one such as NYSE or NASDAQ). It is not officially an ETF (which is what the Winkle Twins are going for on NASDAQ), but it functions in much in the same way (with pretty hefty fees might I add). Effectively, each GBTC share is worth 0.1 Bitcoins, and it is set to start trading sometime this week, or so we are led to believe by Barry Silbert's Twitter account.
http://pando.com/2015/03/02/barry-silberts-bit-wins-the-race-to-become-the-first-publicly-traded-bitcoin-investment-vehicle/
77.
Post 11012423 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.09h):
I don't see why GBTC isn't being priced in already. There is a very good possibility that institutional money that CANNOT buy on the open market will flood into GBTC. The price of GBTC may very well be 10-20% higher than the exchanges for a while but as early adopters of BIT arbitrage, exchange prices have to follow.
What you are saying makes sense. This is a weird moment, especially because GBTC may start trading any day/minute lol. You would think that Barry Silbert and the guys behind this thing would have had some of their own shares to kick this thing off - its like a weird Bitcoin IPO in the back alley.
78.
Post 11014791 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.09h):
Can you guys exactly tell me what is GBTC, and how it's working?
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quoteGBTC is going to be the world's first publicly traded Bitcoin fund. Barry Silbert launched this thing in 2013 and they found a sneaky backdoor to putting a "Bitcoin fund" on a public exchange by publicly selling shares that have been held for 12+ months on an "Over the counter" market (not a top-tier one such as NYSE or NASDAQ). It is not officially an ETF (which is what the Winkle Twins are going for on NASDAQ), but it functions in much in the same way (with pretty hefty fees might I add). Effectively, each GBTC share is worth 0.1 Bitcoins, and it is set to start trading sometime this week, or so we are led to believe by Barry Silbert's Twitter account.
http://pando.com/2015/03/02/barry-silberts-bit-wins-the-race-to-become-the-first-publicly-traded-bitcoin-investment-vehicle/Ya know, the goofed out harry potter picture kinda explained it better.

My apologies. In that case, this may explain things a bit better.

79.
Post 11155246 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.12h):
It has been coiling for a while now...
My feeling is that we are waiting for clarity on GBTC. It either goes live and we jump, or we get another "two week" ETA from Barry Silbert and we tank to test 220 & below...
But hey, wtf do I know?
BTW... my last post was removed for some reason... not sure why.
80.
Post 11156728 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.12h):
It seems that we are going up.
I agree with this statement.
81.
Post 11358909 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.14h):
82.
Post 11359784 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.14h):
The price is consolidating. I think in 24 hours we will see a move. No idea up or down and i am not even guessing, just reacting to the market.
This seems to be the triangle, more or less.
OKCoin:

I think the triangle is still more or less the triangle.
+1
83.
Post 11367476 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.15h):
Trading taking off on GBTC. 25BTC.

lol
This GBTC thing has been interesting/funny to watch. People buying an illiquid BTC proxy at 2x the underlying value...
84.
Post 11368896 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.15h):
Can someone explain to me GBTC owns X number of BTC, they provide X shares of BTC which trade at 2X btc price.
How does GBTC impact in any way the market price of BTC, they don't buy more BTC, do they have plans to add to their BTC holdings?
I get that over a 20 year period GBTC would be nice from a tax perspective, but other than that who cares......? why is GBTC even interesting for broader BTC world?
As far as I understand it, GBTC is interesting because it is the first "BTC tracking" security on public markets (meaning that anyone can theoretically add BTC to their IRA, Pension fund etc).
That being said, it has been a pretty amateur-hour debut - with low volume, high spreads and a price that is 2x the underlying value (each share of GBTC is backed by .1 BTC). The only way that GBTC can get more Bitcoin into the fund is if accredited investors buy GBTC shares directly from the company that manages the fund. The only way that more GBTC shares can make it to the Over-The-Counter market where it trades is for the shares to be held by these accredited investors for at least 12 months, then deposited with their broker and traded.
It seems that there exists a ridiculous arbitrage for those who hold GBTC shares that are 12 months or older (sell for $49 - $490 per BTC effectively - then buy more GBTC shares directly from the corporation @ roughly 24.30 + fees). Yet, no one appears to be taking advantage of this for some reason (perhaps there are not enough 12 month old Holders)...
If this was a regular ETF, the manager would buy/sell a large pool of BTC to accommodate the inflow of $ as people buy and cell the ETF (just like any ETF).
85.
Post 11376488 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.15h):
Look at the vol on GBTC today... over 16,000 vs yesterday's ~300
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote
86.
Post 11449905 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.15h):
There are several hot topics to catch up with, among them the Digital Gold book and Roger Ver calling Star Xu of OKCoin a liar.

Also, Bitfinex got hacked and robbed

Can someone point me to some more info on this Bitfinex hack?
87.
Post 11449941 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.15h):
Thanks
88.
Post 11618795 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
Hahaha - I had to look up what that was Fatman...
"Drone Boning"
Now I have seen everything.
Regarding BTC price... I think that there is a chance that Greece's drama may influence our little crypto coin this week.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11673989/Syriza-Left-demands-Icelandic-default-as-Greek-defiance-stiffens.htmlIf Greece goes the way of Iceland, things will escalate real quick in Europe's financial Markets. Germany & France may take a bath to the tune of 160 Billion.. no one knows how that would play out.
89.
Post 11625800 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
everybody remain calm.

Perhaps it is these talks of capital controls in Greece... Capital controls have been inevitable for weeks.
http://news.forexlive.com/!/eurozone-countries-ready-capital-controls-for-greece---german-press-20150615
90.
Post 11625873 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
Indeed - capital controls would be a rude awakening for the Greek people (though it is almost a Mt Gox situation - if anyone has any significant amount of Euros in a Greek bank, what the fuck are they thinking?).
Capital controls are a great ad for the value of BTC - I bet that traders are positioning for this in case BTC has a reaction similar to the Cyprus Pump.
91.
Post 11634369 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
This has been an interesting pump. I wonder if it has another leg left in it.
Watching 250 on BitFinex and 1600 on OKcoin like:

92.
Post 11634450 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
Is Huobi messed up on Bitcoin wisdom for everyone?
Flat lined for me.. what's up with that?

93.
Post 11634475 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
Huobi API down.
Thank you.
94.
Post 11634661 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
Time for another push?
BitFinex looks like it wants to test 250 again.
OKCoin feels a bit heavy.. but if Finex goes, OK should follow.
95.
Post 11634863 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
OK coin having problems... 502
Anyone else seeing this?
EDIT - seems to be back now
96.
Post 11634945 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
Yeah OKCoin is having trouble again.
It keeps having 522, 520 and 502 errors.
EDIT - It is back, but I am not convinced yet.
97.
Post 11635142 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
1550 Should be interesting on OK...
98.
Post 11635970 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
It may not be Grexit related... but it sure would be a funny coincidence.
The real question is whether the price rise is driven by honest-to-god Bitcoin demand due to the Greek situation or whether it is just traders/whales expecting another Cypress-style rally. Then again - does it really matter?
I'm curious to see if we have another move higher today/tonight.
99.
Post 11646805 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
How is this related to Bitcoins, gentlemand ?
Aw man. I dunno. You need a Technical Analysis advocate. I'm most definitely not sold on the whole concept.
In essence it charts predictable levels of support or resistance in the price movement. The inventor was born around 850 years ago which maybe says it all.
Not a TA "advocate"... but I have found that it is important to pay attention to markets at certain (very basic) support/resistance levels. I mean, if you are trading - how else do you get in/out with sensible Risk/Reward?
100.
Post 11646836 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
how else do you get in/out with sensible Risk/Reward?
Get drunk, close one's eyes and press as many buttons as possible.
I don't trade. I have a little in the past. My greatest successes happened with a combination of complete and utter guesswork and forgetting things.
This!
Ahhhh..... I knew I was doing this shit wrong. asdkjahskdgakfjb
101.
Post 11739079 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.19h):
It will be a wild week.
I wonder if the recent weakness in BTC over the last few hrs may be related to the ubber strength in USD (forex opening right now - with Japan waking up in 2-3 hrs and EURUSD gapping lower 150+ pips). I would have thought that the official announcement of Capital controls would be worthy of a pop.
The EuroZone is fundamentally flawed IMHO and if they mess up this week - it could be a fatal body blow for the single currency (good riddance, but it will be painful).
102.
Post 11765044 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.19h):

May be relevant...
103.
Post 11766523 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.19h):

So WikiLeaks came out with another flop.
Turns out the US & UK were bugging German and French leaders (nothing new here).
Also turns out that Merkel, Hollande and Schuable do not see eye to eye on how to sort this mess out (yawn).
Is it just me, or has WikiLeaks become incredibly irrelevant of late? They were probably sitting on this waiting for an opportune time to release it in an attempt to get some press.
EDIT - Original Link (there are a number of related Tweets) -
https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/616298312585625600PS - how does one embed Tweets in this forum?
104.
Post 11766634 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.19h):
Hmmm... maybe I judged too quickly.
I guess I was hoping for a bomb-shell that would mix things up a bit... not a restatement of facts/sentiments we already know.
105.
Post 11766740 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.19h):
Just to discuss Greece - why the hell would any other country in the eurozone want Greece to stay & grant them another bail out etc?
It seems very, very counter productive, it's like giving another mortgage to a guy who can't pay the mortgage on his current property, the answer is known before you even ask the question - he is going to default again & again & again.
Greece are a disaster, what use are they to the other countries in the eurozone?
They can't pay back what they owe now, why give them even more?
IMHO - The reason they want to keep Greece in the EZ is because it could damage the currency project in subtle, but powerful ways. It proves that membership can be reversible in times of crisis (hedge funds will press hard on the next country in trouble), it clearly shows the juxtaposition of national sovereignty & currency union and if Greece leaves and does well - more fuel for the Left wing in Spain, Italy, Portugal and the far-right in France.
Overall - it is a scary unpredictable thing.
The Euro, much like our beloved Bitcoin, is a monetary experiment, but unlike BTC (hopefully) it was poorly designed from the outset. It was supposed to create unity & growth, and it has done the exact opposite. An exit could be the first step in dismanteling the whole house of cards, and as the 2nd (3rd?) biggest reserve currency in the world, a collapse in the Euro would have ripple effects that no one can predict (hence the comparison to the Lehman's moment).
I think about BTC and Greece far too much lol.
EDIT - changed the wording because it previously made it seem like I was suggesting that BTC was poorly designed.
106.
Post 11766794 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.19h):
Speaking of Bitcoin - lets see if we can hold on to 260 this time..
The correlation with the Litecoin pump is intriguing (somewhat concerning... unless they take it to 8-10+).
107.
Post 11766965 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.19h):
Sigh.... Euro is a way more superior to bitcoin , how do you compare something that is backed by natural resources and production of a continent to something that is hashed out of thin air from discovery of numbers? .... you guys have wool so deep covering your eyes that you can't even functionally even logically rule out the reasons for why Greece has failed and use these non comparative scenarios to back your belief in bitcoins ...
If that was referencing my comments - I read it over and I realized it sounded like I was saying that BTC was poorly designed just like the Euro - that was not my intension and I have since edited my comment.
Specifically - I think Greece has failed because it is a fundamentally stupid idea for 19 very different economies to share 1 monetary policy. This is why the Euro will fail in the long run IMHO
Bitcoin on the other hand is a different animal entirely... though it is still an experiment that may well fail or get eclipsed by some other innovation.
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Post 11766988 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.19h):
109.
Post 11772746 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.19h):
A break downwards here could get ugly.
+1
Most of the violence is happening on OKcoin...
1550-1560 is a big level for the bulls to defend.
I also get the feeling that OKcoin gets messed with as it approaches Thursdays Futures expiration. Perhaps some whales use the spot market to manipulate Futures prices as they approach settlement..
110.
Post 11826519 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.20h):
Crazy day...
I feel like there are a lot of lurking dangers out there coming from all angles.
- Chinese stocks are in free fall mode, despite the governments best efforts (making them lose credibility).
- Greece is being pushed out of the EuroZone unless a miracle occurs by Sunday
- Puerto Rico is defaulting
- NYSE has a weird "glitch" at the same time that United and WSJ have technical problems
And worst of all, we smug Bitcoiners have a bloated blockchain with 80,000 txn sitting in the mempool.
That being said, we may be at a near-term peak in bearishness, and a positive development on any of those fronts may give us temporary reprieve... though I think there is also a risk that we get a strong risk-off move in the next few days/weeks/months that may lead to a correction.
*Puts on Bear Hat lined with tinfoil
111.
Post 11844385 (copy this link) (by Specular) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.20h):
What's up with OKCoin?
Is it just messed up on BitcoinWisdom? Site seems to be up and running fine.
OkCoin really did go full retard for a minute there.